Officer Cadets Section

Annual Camp - 2006

Details from the 2006 Annual Camp are below

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General Situation - Annual Camp 2006

World View

The USA, the EU and, increasingly, Russia are thriving economically and politically stable.   Europe is still under the threat of international terrorism, centred largely against nations who actively support US policies in the Middle and Far East.   Despite the relative stability of the region, an international crisis has developed in the small Adriatic state of ANDRONON. If the situation worsens, neighbouring states may seek the opportunity to intervene, threatening not only the delicate balance of ethnic power within ANDRONON, but, more worryingly, destabilizing the entire region once again and threatening instability across the Eastern end of the Mediterranean. NATO and the EU are now cooperating over a number of urgent diplomatic, economic and military measures in the quest of maintaining regional peace and security for the benefit of all parties.

ANDRONON

ANDRONON is situated at the southern end of the Adriatic. It emerged from the ashes of the Ottoman Empire in 1918 at the end of the First World War. To its north lies OTTOSTAN; to its west, the predominantly Sunni Islamic state of BASILICA; to its south, the Shiite Arab state of CYRIS. Its land mass is approximately 130,000 km2; its ethnically diverse population (2000 census) is 11,198,500. Internal divisions between the narrow majority of Christian Andronites (57%) and the Basilican (24%) and Cyrisian (19%) minorities are complicated and fractious at best.

ANDRONON is blessed with the natural resources of gas and abundant water, and is thus the envy of its neighbours. Large quantities of high-grade natural gas beneath the central Andronian plain and in the southern forested areas have ensured economic wealth for the Andronian elite, but the minority ethnic and religious groups have not prospered commensurately. ANDRONON has recently expelled Cyrisian workers. Basilican and Cyrisian ethnic populations are concentrated in the depressed rural areas of the west and southern provinces, especially in the forested STAMORDIC region. Droughts, failing harvests and the increasing demands of its own irrigation and hydroelectric projects have reduced the amount of water flow and electricity ANDRONON has made available to BASILICA, breaking treaty obligations brokered by the UN in 1998.

BASILICA

BASILICA is a well-armed Islamist and historically rich state which equipped itself lavishly from the Former Soviet Union on the proceeds of its notorious ‘oil-for-guns’ programme in the 1990s. However, falling oil revenues and a failing agricultural system, combined with rising unemployment (particularly in the 16-25 age group) are all leading to increasing political instability. Despite, and perhaps because of these internal problems, the Basilican Peoples’ Party (commonly referred to as ‘B2P’) is becomingly increasingly vocal in its call for ‘regional fairness and rebalancing’. A share in the wealth, or preferably, direct control, of the southern ANDRONON region would solve many of Basilica’s problems at a stroke.

The Basilican armed forces have diversified into three main types: regular, irregular and ‘special troops’. Whilst the regular forces retain conventional equipment and groupings, and are optimized for defence of the homeland, the irregular forces are trained to operate as lightly-armed small groups at home and abroad. A particular feature of the irregulars is their ability to be assimilated into, and to receive support from, friendly ethnic populations – from whom they are largely indistinguishable. The ‘special troops’ have a threefold role: to protect the president and the institutions of the ‘B2P’; to train and stiffen the regular armed forces; and to provide a clandestine lead to the irregular Basilican and other friendly forces abroad, helping to foment chaos, terror and insurgency.

CYRIS

CYRIS has neither much oil nor water. Despite some fishing and a modest shipbuilding industry, its economy is heavily reliant on financial support from other Arab states in, particular BASILICA. It used to enjoy good relations with its northern neighbour. Until 2001 a fast-growing Andronian economy had encouraged Cyrisian migration into the ethnically similar areas astride the border area and on the Adriatic littoral. Many disgruntled immigrants have now returned to CYRIS and are facing rising unemployment in their homeland. Cross-border disputes over religious rights, property and pensions have all fuelled Cyrisian distrust of ANDRONON.

The principal component of the Cyrisian armed forces is its small but effective navy. Equipped with a variety of fast missile patrol boats and four 1990s generation conventional submarines purchased from a member of the EU; it poses a potent threat to any maritime intervention force. Its army, on the other hand, is a poorly organized and equipped infantry force, supported by a limited number of light aircraft and helicopters. Recent intelligence points to the formation of a ‘Cyrisian Cooperation Force’ (CCF) that would appear to be designed to assist ethnic Cyrisians in ANDRONON. It has all the hallmarks of Basilican ‘special troops’ training and support.

OTTOSTAN

OTTOSTAN is a powerful, fiercely independent, neutral state. Although it enjoys strong economic links with Europe, it will not necessarily support NATO or the EU.

Military Strategic Situation (as at 30 May 2006)

Enduring stabilization operations in the Middle and Far East have required the commitment of nearly half of the US Army and USMC brigade equivalents. Australian, Canadian and New Zealand forces are also fully committed. Although a major rotation of US forces of approximately 120,000 troops has recently occurred, the only remaining uncommitted ground forces are stationed in Europe, where Task Force Sheridan is stood by as a national strategic reserve. European forces are equally heavily committed, especially in the Middle East although with limited engagement with US led coalition forces in the Far East. The UK has some 26% of the Army committed to operations with no immediate likelihood of this reducing. 19th London Brigade (19 LB), which includes 1st Battalion ULOTC (1 ULOTC), has recently completed re-rolling to the light role and was declared operationally effective on 1 Apr 06. The Brigade was placed on 7 days notice to move effective 30 May 06.

THE CHANGING SITUATION IN ANDRONON - as at 5 Jun 06

A series of spectacular terrorist attacks have occurred in the ethnically mixed southern region of STAMFORDIC recently, which triggered a swift and aggressive response by ANDRONIAN security forces. Over 150 ethnic Basilicans and Cyrisians were injured in the ensuing riots. Amidst much 'sabre-rattling', BASILICA has threatened to 'liberate' its ethic brothers from their Andronian persecutors unless autonomy is granted to ANDRONON's eastern provinces, and previous pledges to supply water to the rest of the region are honoured. CYRIS, whilst lacking a large conventional force is suspected of supporting insurgents in the STAMFORDIC region.

The US have applied considerable diplomatic pressure on the UN and the belligerent parties to find a political settlement. Subsequently, the UN managed to get all parties to agree to the STAMFORDIC Peace Accord (UNSCR 2112). This accord has 3 main parts; to ensure security in the STAMFORDIC region; facilitate the return of displaced refugees to ANDRONON; and set the conditions for peaceful and democratic elections. Although tension remains high, the UK has agreed to send a Small Scale Peace Keeping/Enforcement package under 19th London Brigade to the region. The timeframe for enforcing the STAMFORDIC Peace Accord has not yet been assessed but the UK MOD is currently planning for the commitment to last at least 18 months.

POSSIBLE INSURGENT OBJECTIVES
Key terrain of relevance to this dispute, which may form possible BASILICAN objectives and/or the focus of terrorist attacks, includes water infrastructure and the gas fields in the central area of the STAMFORDIC region.

ENEMY FORCES BASILICA
There is no BASILICAN conventional threat, only suspected SF activity. However, this SF activity is not assessed as conducting offensive operations but to facilitate indigenous insurgents. The UNSCR 2112 provides border crossing authority into BASILICA in pursuit of insurgents.

CYRIS
There is no conventional military threat from CYRIS. However, it is assessed that CYRIS SF are providing covert safe areas for insurgent training camps and launching subsequent operations into the STAMFORDIC region. The UNSCR 2112 provides border crossing authority into CYRIS in pursuit of insurgents.

FRIENDLY FORCES
As previously outlined the UK is providing a Small Scale Peace Enforcement/ Peacekeeping force under 19th London Brigade. UK forces are already deploying with the reconnaissance and lead elements of the Brigade Headquarters already established in ANDRONON. The remaining Brigade units are embarking on pre-deployment training and are likely to deploy by 1 Jul 06.

WARNING ORDER

Situation. The southern Adriatic state of ANDRONON has experienced considerable insurgent activity and associated civil unrest. Neighbouring states of BASILICA and CYRIS likely to be bases for insurgents operating in the STAMFORDIC region of ANDRONON. UN has passed Resolution 2112 which authorises a peace enforcement/keeping operation to be mounted. UK elements will be led by HQ 19th LON Bde. ULOTC will deploy as part of main force.

Probable Mission. ULOTC is likely to be given the mission to conduct operations in the central area of the STAMFORDIC region of ANDRONON in order to enforce Resolution 2112.

Own Main Effort. ULOTC’s Main Effort is likely to be the identification and denial of insurgents within the central area of the STAMFORDIC region.

Timings.

a. Mounting for Pre Deployment Training: To commence from Yeomanry House at 231800AJUN06.

b. Pre Deployment Training: To be conducted centred MALTA BARRACKS, ALDERSHOT from 241200AJUN06 for a minimum of 5 days. No move from Yeomanry House before 240700AJUN06.

c. Deployment: Recce No Move Before 011500AJUL06.
Main Body No Move Before 021400AJUL06.

d. Notice to Move: ULOTC is to be at 2 days NTM at 270001AJUN06.

O Gp. Deployment O Gp will take place at MALTA BARRACKS 021030AJUL06. Daily coordination conferences as per Trg Maj’s direction during pre-deployment training.

CSS.

a. Dress and Equipment: Per Mounting Instruction.

b. Rations: Per Mounting Instruction.

c. Transport: Per Mounting Instruction.

Command and Signal. RHQ to be established at MALTA BARRACKS by no later than 241200AJUN06. Location on deployment TBC.

Acknowledge.

Authentication:
WG IRVING
Lt Col
CO